Based on new media research, experts anticipate that predictions about the precise date of Peak Oil will, themselves, peak in 2014.
Expert Trendologist Hari Seldon described his predictions for us:
“This prediction is based on various factors – the nature of supply and demand, the historical record of predictions (Peak Whale Oil, Peak Steam, Peak Mule), the attention span of various media channels and psychomathic simulations of the entire Earth’s population.”
“Basically, ” Seldon said, “You’re going to see Peak Oil predictions continue to rise over the next few years, because the Media loves a crisis, and people generally need to fret about something, and most of their basic needs and wants have been met. Currently, the recession is the number one issue on the Fretometer, but over the next 3 years, as the economy improves, the recession will recede, and other worries, specifically Peak Oil will take its place.”
When asked about Global Warming, Seldon said “The recent criticisms of the CRU datasets and the IPCC documents has dramatically reduced worry in AGW. Good or bad, it is not nearly as threatening as it once was. Peak Oil, on the other hand, has a very obvious pain point – the cost of gas – and is easier for people to grasp.”
And why 2014? – Seldon: “What we can expect is an increase in oil prices as the economy recovers. This will, naturally, cause people to switch away from gas where possible, which will generally limit the price increase, just as it did in the summer of 2008. But that won’t be obvious early on, and the media will breathlessly extrapolate a linear trend, and predict gas prices of 10, 15 and $20 a gallon as we surge towards our productive peak.”
“However, ” Seldon continued, “the economy will switch away from gas as the price rises, by substituting walking, video conferencing, bike riding and combining trips, and this will significantly dampen demand. When the crisis fails to materialize a second time, and the media gets burned again, they’ll start to wise up that linear extrapolation of demand is foolish, and the demand for Peak Oil demagoguery will experience a rapid collapse, in the summer of 2014”