Oddsmaking on Game of Thrones

Spoilers from S06E03, obviously:







Spoilers incoming!   Don’t read beyond this if you don’t want to be spoiled!








  • Odds Smalljon Umber is playing Ramsay for a fool
    • 1:1
  • Odds Osha gets tortured or beaten
    • 3:1  (i.e. 75% chance)
  • Odds that the wolf head is actually Shaggydog
    • 1:1
      • This is essentially a conjoined estimate with the Smalljon – I find it unlikely that the Smalljon would kill Shaggydog and be part of the Great Northern Conspiracy.   And I find it unlikely that he wouldn’t kill Shaggydog but yet be loyal to Ramsay.
  • Odds that we find Lyanna in the ToJ in episode 4:
    • 1:3  (25% chance)
  • Odds that Drogon makes a flyby of the Dosh Khaleen
    • 3:2 (60% chance)
  • Odds that Sansa meets Jon in Epsiode 4
    • 1:2 (33% chance)
  • Odds of Cleganebowl at any point this season
    • 1:9 (11% chance)
  • Odds Rhaegal and Viserion break out of their prison in Episode 4
    • 1:3


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