PicoBusiness

Snickers with drugs
(handout / October 17, 2004)
Handing out drugs

In 2000 some kids in Hercules, Calif., came home from trick-o-treating with packets of marijuana done up to look like mini Snickers bars. The police traced the fake candy to a single house.

They found the homeowner didn’t know the Snickers were actually mini marijuana packs. He was a postal worker who took the candy home when it ended up in the dead letter office.

Source: snopes.com

Spending some time quietly sitting, reading and contemplating what’s going on right now, I think there are some notes of optimism.

Software - I think a significant chunk of software development is safe – much of modern corporate software development is either about saving money, making more money, making things easier (and thus saving money), or watching things closely (reducing the amount of money lost to waste). All of those initiatives are even more important right now.

Lower-cost Entertainment - I think we’ll see fewer trips to the movies, fewer visits to restaurants, and more entertainment-in-the-home. I.e. computer games, TV, Cable, Online entertainment and DVDs – especially things that can be seen more than once. Look for the price-per-hour of entertainment to drop.

Groceries & Foodstuffs – More home-cooked meals and/or home-prepared meals. Many restaurants are going to wither and die, especially on the high end.

Health Care – people will continue to pay lots of money to stay alive. I don’t think it will grow a lot, but it will still make money.

Any company with lots of cash and some foresight – if you have a lot of money, you can ride out a lot of bumps that kill your competitors. You can pay discounted rates for advertising (see below) because no one else is buying.

And some notes of pessimism:

Manufacturing - I think there’s no upside here – the floor has dropped out of the superfluous vanity purchase market. Large, expensive equipment manufacturers are going to struggle with expensive credit. Small item manufacturing may do ok, especially if they make guns, dog food, etc. I think the key here is products that save money or make people feel safer will do well.

Home Building – ’nuff said. Too much inventory and too few buyers with good enough credit.

Car Manufacturing – People will stick with their old clunkers, unless they’re really getting crappy gas mileage, but the drop in oil prices undercuts that.

Advertising – It becomes more of a luxury, when the customers are fighting to survive. It won’t be a huge drop, because of smarter buyers (see above), but Google will probably hurt a bit here.

Consulting – Unless you’re clearly helping a company save money, or make more money, you’re probably going to struggle.

Advertising – I think it’s going to take a massive hit.

A useful read on the kinds of mis-steps you can make when you want to empower your team.

I am still plagued by some script storm bot thing that continues to break through WordPress security. Grr.

Take a picture of yourself right now.
Don’t change your clothes, don’t fix your hair…just take a picture. (should be super-easy with Photobooth)
Post that picture with NO editing.
Post these instructions with your picture.

http://blog.obiefernandez.com/content/2008/10/the-me-meme.html

found at: Reg Braithwaite

Brilliant:

Hat Tip: Prof. Greg Mankiw

Ahem.

So let me see if I have this logic straight:

Given a republican who is against something (in this case earmarks), and that something is added to a bill that is considered very important (in this case, the bailout)

• If he votes against it, he is too dogmatic to lead
• If he votes for it, he is too hypocritical to lead

Same situation, but with a democrat:

• If he votes against it, he is principled and honorable, and therefore a good leader
• If he votes for it, he is willing to compromise in a crisis, and therefore a good leader

Just wanted to make sure I was clear on how things work.

This is a very good read, although the information is quite sobering.

One thing that I’m not sure I agree with him about – how much credit is used for payroll. I know that it happens when organizations have large, infrequent sales – but how much of the business world does that cover – obviously housing, luxury car sales and large equipment – but lots of businesses run on continuous cash flows (apartments, retail stores, government agencies, etc). Those aren’t going to be as adversely affected.

Also, many businesses have existing revolving lines of credit that they borrow from to pay bills and then pay back when the sales come in. If the line of credit is already in place, I don’t see those getting shut down right and left.

If you’re planning on starting a new business where you need to borrow lots of money on the hopes of a big, infrequent sale, now is definitely not the time. But if your business is fed off of ongoing cash flows, I would think you’d be in a pretty good place.